What Faith Leaders Need to Know About Observable Warning Signs
Over decades of analyzing targeted attacks, researchers at the U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center found something critical: the vast majority of attackers showed warning signs long before they acted. These were not invisible threats. They were people whose concerning behavior was noticed by friends, family members, coworkers, or community leaders. In many cases, the person even communicated their intent in advance. The tragedy was not that the signs were invisible. It was that no one knew what to do when they saw them.
Faith communities are uniquely positioned to catch these warning signs early. Pastors, staff, and volunteers have relationships with their members. They see people at different times, in different contexts. They often know family situations, life stressors, and mental health struggles. When someone begins to show concerning changes, a faith leader may be among the first to notice. The challenge is knowing whether to dismiss a worry as overreaction or to take it seriously.
What Observable Warning Signs Look Like
Warning signs are not vague hunches. They are concrete changes in thinking or behavior that can be described and discussed. These may include escalating anger or rage, a sudden shift toward isolation, expressed hopelessness about the future, talk of wanting to hurt themselves or others, fascination with past attacks or attackers, increased substance use, or a sudden change in normal routines. They may also include acquiring weapons, researching attack methods, or expressing grievances that seem to consume their thoughts.
Importantly, any single sign does not necessarily mean someone is dangerous. Many people experience anger, sadness, or even fleeting thoughts of harming themselves without posing a threat to others. The key is looking at patterns. When multiple signs cluster together, when they escalate over time, or when they combine with access to means and isolation, they deserve serious attention.
From Observation to Structured Assessment
Once a faith leader has noticed concerning signs, the next step is to move beyond worry into action. This is where tools like the Homicide Threat Screener (HTS) become invaluable. The HTS is not a clinical interview. It is a brief, structured conversation (5 to 10 minutes) that a trained lay person can conduct with someone showing warning signs. The conversation asks concrete questions about thoughts, plans, capability, and access to weapons. It does not accuse or diagnose. It simply gathers information in a calm, respectful way.
The beauty of the HTS is that it takes the guesswork out of an uncomfortable situation. Instead of wondering whether to broach a subject, the faith leader has a framework. Instead of relying on their own judgment about what matters, they follow a research-backed set of questions. And importantly, they can involve trusted colleagues. A pastor does not have to conduct an HTS alone. It is often best done by a small team, including perhaps a staff counselor, a lay leader trained in threat assessment, and the person who first noticed the concern.
When to Involve Professionals
If an HTS screening suggests that someone is thinking about harming themselves or others, or if warning signs are severe or escalating, the next step is to involve trained professionals. A mental health clinician can conduct a more thorough assessment using the Homicide Safety Risk Assessment (HSRA), a 20 to 30 minute evaluation that builds a complete picture of a person's risk level, stressors, protective factors, and needs. Based on that assessment, the team can recommend appropriate interventions such as mental health treatment, substance abuse support, or temporary removal of access to weapons.
None of this requires a faith leader to become an expert in mental health or threat assessment. It requires learning to recognize patterns, knowing how to start a structured conversation, and understanding when to ask for help. It is about building a safety culture where concerns are taken seriously and addressed with both compassion and professionalism.
Prevention Is a Gift to the Community
Many faith traditions teach the value of caring for the vulnerable and intervening when someone is in trouble. Early threat assessment is an expression of that value. By learning to recognize warning signs and responding with structured tools and professional support, faith leaders offer their communities a profound gift. They reduce the likelihood that a member in crisis will reach a point of violence. They connect that person to help. They protect both the individual and the congregation. That is prevention at its best.